I like to say that marketing is more defined by permanence than by change, contrary to the prevailing discourse.
It sounds like Groundhog Day: some predictions have been reappearing for years, always creating the false impression that “everything changes all the time”.
The predictions aren't wrong. These are just long-term trends that we like to believe will occur a little faster than they actually do. Some examples from the usual word cloud:
“Integration of strategies” “Privacy and end of Cookies” “Segmented Media”
“Decisions with data” “Content Safety and ESG” “AI AI AI ML” “Brandperformance”
“The CPM will increase”
Hoping to add something new to the usual catchphrases, I take a risk here 5 trends that, I believe, will mark 2025 in the media and measurement ecosystem:
#1 Emergence of consideration channels and digital video formats
I believe that the 'middle of the funnel' channels are those with the highest growth trend. Highlights - CTV, Reels, TikTok, YouTube Ads and DOOH.
They are more accessible channels than traditional awareness media, but they work well for demand generation and discovery. With measurement models that are increasingly less dependent on clicks and tracking, these channels tend to stand out in the plans.
“Oh, but where is retail-media?” It's not here.
#2 Adoption of Marketing Mix Modeling by smaller advertisers
Marketing Mix Modeling is the main ROI measurement model that looks at the entire funnel. Historically, for technical reasons, it was restricted to gigantic advertisers, especially retail ones.
With the advance in automation, I believe that it will become a market standard for advertisers of all sizes.
#3 Causal Inference and Experiments Finally Tracing
Understanding “Causal Inference” is the most important skill for the data-driven marketer in this decade. It will help us to understand precisely the role of media related to findability (retail-media/search), as well as new consideration formats.
Years ago we talked about experiments, incrementality tests, geolifts. But the truth is that these schedules have not yet driven off the corridors of large vehicles. 2025 we will see that change.
#4 Better Measures of Creative Quality
The most important impact of AI in the short term will be the improvement in creative metrification capacity. There is a growing consensus that a large part of a campaign's return is due to the creative, and not simply to the delivery of media.
The acceleration in AI image recognition technologies, associated with behavioral metrics, allows us to transform this unforgivable quality into metrics. It will be essential that we incorporate these measures into the attribution stack.
#5 Unification in measurement agendas
As attribution per click receives new friends (MMM, MTA, Experiments), the ability to unify this agenda and ensure consistency will be critical. Each measurement model serves a specific purpose, and without a cohesive and unified agenda, multiplicity will generate more noise than signal.